July was a great month for Long Branch real estate. Sales of single-family homes were up: 13 homes sold in July last year, and 19 sold this year (+46%). In addition, the monthly median home price increased 20% (from $225,000 last July to $270,000 this July).
Those are just the monthly numbers. The 4 key objective indicators we want to look at are Long Branch’s 2013 Year-to-Date statistics, which are important for both home buyers and home sellers:
Sales: 58 in 2012, 74 in 2013 (+28%)
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Listings: 119 in 2012, 130 at the end of July 2013 (+9%)
Median Sales Price: $205,000 in 2012, $236,000 in 2013 (+15%)
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Absorption Rate: 15.9 months in 2012, 12.1 months now (stronger Demand vs. Supply)
How do we interpret these numbers? Increased sales normally predict higher prices in the near future, but more homes on the market work to decrease prices. The tie breakers: an increase in the median sales price plus a significantly stronger real estate absorption rate predict that sales prices will continue to rise. If you remember my previous posts, you know that the absorption rate is a calculation of the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently on the market, assuming that homes continue to sell at the same rate as they did in the past 12 months. An absorption rate of 5 – 7 months is considered a “normal market”, and a rate less than 5 months is considered a “seller’s market”. If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in Long Branch, the current rate of 12.1 months tells you that we’re still in a “buyer’s market”, but not nearly as much of one as we were a year ago.
The current market offers both home buyers and sellers opportunities in Long Branch. We still haven’t seen the impact that higher mortgage rates may have on the market. Will we see an increase in home buyers trying to lock in the present rates before they rise again, or will rates increase more quickly than expected (and reduce the size of the home mortgages that buyers can afford)?
If you’ve been thinking of selling your Long Branch home but still aren’t sure, I’d be glad to help you by giving you a free (no obligation) analysis of what your home is worth in the present real estate market. Call, text or email me.
Len
Leonard “Len” Dunikoski, GRI
REALTOR® Associate
Diane Turton Realtors – Rumson Office
8 West River Road
