Community Corner

Tropical Storm Emily Could Track up the Atlantic Coast

Storm could be a hurricane by Monday; meteorologists say Shore may see little more than big surf.

Tropical Storm Emily is currently beating a path across the Caribbean, and while forecasters warn that the storm could track her way up the country's southern Atlantic coast over the weekend, meteorologists here say Emily will likely bring nothing more than big surf to the Jersey Shore.

The fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Emily is now 180 miles southeast of the Dominican Republic, bringing sustained winds of 50 miles per hour to the area, according to the National Weather Service.

The storm is expected to hit to the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, possibly dumping up to 10 inches of rain on the island of Hispanola, which is made up of both countries. But Emily will weaken as it travels northwest across the mountainous island toward Florida, forecasters say.

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When it emerges south of the Bahamas Thursday, the storm could intensify as it tracks north, according to prediction models. The current forecast cone shows a likely path up Florida's Atlantic coast starting Friday, with the possibility of an upgrade to a low-level hurricane off the Carolinas by Monday.

However, the latest report form the National Weather Service says there is still "significant uncertainty" in the model beyond Friday.

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As a result, it's hard to tell what effect the storm may have on New Jersey.

"Emily is a long way away right now," said meteorologist Bob Wanton with the National Weather Service's Mount Holly station, and it's not possible to say for sure what path it will take. But the storm is likely to recurve somewhere north of the Bahamas, he said, so as it moves north, "it would mainly be an ocean storm."

That could make Jersey surfers happy in the coming week, but casual swimmers should beware.

With offshore storms, "you get increased long period swells, so that will kick up the wave heights, and it will also increase the risk of rip currents," said Wanton.

As far as wind and rain, he said, "if it's far out at sea, we won't see anything."


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