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DIRECT HIT: Latest Forecast Suggests Sandy Will Strike New Jersey

Central and Northern New Jersey would experience the "worst-case scenario," but the massive storm is expected to damage a wide area of the East Coast.

Hurricane Sandy is still packing 75 mph winds as a Category 1 storm on Saturday evening, and it could directly hit Monmouth and Ocean counties, weather forecasters say.

If so, it could be the first hurricane to directly hit the Jersey Shore in decades - maybe even a century. Other hurricanes, such as Irene in 2011, Belle in 1976 and Gloria in 1985, hugged the coast a bit before making a complete landfall in New Jersey.

The massive storm is located off the coast of the Carolinas and is traveling north at 13 mph over the open water of the Atlantic Ocean parallel to the East Coast.

Forecasters still expect the system to take a sharp left turn early on Monday morning and head toward the New Jersey coastline. At 2 p.m. Monday, while it's still offshore, the storm will have winds of 80 mph.

The National Hurricane Center said Saturday night that forecast models predicting the storm will eventually make landfall along the New Jersey coastline.

Meanwhile, the Miami-based agency said it would not lengthen the watch or warning area for the storm to locations north of areas currently under such warnings since Sandy may no longer be considered a tropical system once it reaches the Shore area.

Instead, official advisories from the storm would come in the form of high wind warnings and various marine warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.

For Monmouth and Ocean Counties, there is a high wind watch through Tuesday afternoon. There is also a coastal flood warning for Monmouth and Ocean Counties until midnight Monday night and a flood watch through Tuesday afternoon.

In his evening forecasts, NBC40 meteorologist Dan Skeldon is suggesting that the storm could make landfall anywhere in New Jersey, somewhere in Ocean or Monmouth counties.

The strongest winds and greatest impact from a storm surge are predicted to be north of the storm. If Sandy lands north of Ocean City, central and northern New Jersey would see what Skeldon calls the "worst-case scenario." Southern New Jersey would see more rain (but still feel the effects of very strong winds).

Skeldon — who has earned a strong reputation predicting local conditions for the southern New Jersey shore — predicts winds of 60 to 80 mph on Monday in southern New Jersey.

He said the greatest impact will be during the two high tides on Monday. The first — at 8:27 a.m. at the Ninth Street Bridge on the bay side of Ocean City — would see the potentially strongest winds. The second — at 8:46 p.m. — could be mitigated by winds that may shift offshore and blow water back out to sea (if the storm does indeed make landfall north of Ocean City).

Skeldon predicted more "blowout tides" for Tuesday — with strong winds blowing from the west.

He warned that the massive storm is very dangerous and will be "a record-breaking storm for somebody," and he emphasized that slight shifts in the forecast or track of the storm could lead to dramatic changes in potential damage.

With waves of 30 to 40 feet over the open ocean and pounding surf closer to shore, beach erosion will be one of the guarantees of Sandy. Heavy rainfall of several inches will add fresh water to tidal floods of salt water.

The storm has led to a mandatory evacuation order for all of the barrier islands in New Jersey starting effective at 4 p.m. Sunday. Ocean City, Atlantic City and many other towns are included in the order — with all of the casino guests and employees required to comply.

The evacuation order, of course, forces the closing of barrier island public schools on Monday and Tuesday. But most mainland towns are also closing schools for those two days.

1stcav October 28, 2012 at 03:52 PM
Keep camera body dry, just let the lens stick out and bring plenty of lens cloth to dry lens, your gonna need it ! good clicking !
B October 28, 2012 at 03:54 PM
Someone is just getting ready for the storm and looking for a generator NOW??? dee dee dee dee
Glenn Hayes October 28, 2012 at 03:55 PM
thanks 1stcav for the hint. Will give it a try.
1stcav October 28, 2012 at 03:56 PM
What local radio stations will keep US up dated on the local news. Last storm WOBM played music, like we weren't even in a storm. Nero played the fiddle as Rome burned, very poor local coverage by a "JERSEY Shore " station !!!!!
Fred M October 28, 2012 at 03:59 PM
Psalms 91. Check it out...Reading this Psalm provides protection from God..Disaster will not come near you...
LB Resident October 28, 2012 at 04:18 PM
From another news site from LB OEM:: According to the latest information (Saturday, October 27, at 5:00pm) our area can expect winds from 50-65mph with gusts over 75mph. “Monday night around 9:00pm until Tuesday midday is the brunt of the storm,” said Dziuba. “The seas will be around 21-feet, that is two stories.” He also spoke about the tide conditions stating that normally there is about 3-to-5 hours between high tides which allows the water to recess. However, with this storm and the surges they only anticipate about 60 minutes between high tides. What that means is significant flooding. Dziuba also stated that we will get about 8-10 inches of rain, added with the tides will create havoc in the area. “We are ordering a mandatory evacuation of our north section of town. Atlantic Avenue at Branchport Avenue all the way to the oceanfront. Police and firefighters will start to notify residents in that area on Sunday morning,” added Dziuba.
Rich Nimphius October 28, 2012 at 04:40 PM
School Closings ?
Rich Nimphius October 28, 2012 at 04:42 PM
for Springfield township ?
Luxstar1 October 28, 2012 at 04:58 PM
Since power outages are inevitable having a long run time flashlight is a good idea. Lowes has a 65 hour run time flashlight for under $5.00 http://www.instructables.com/id/Easy-Flashlight-Mod-Increases-Run-Time-36X/?allstep I got mine in store. I also got one at Target. More: http://armageddononline.org/forums/threads/34318-Cheap-long-run-time-flashlights Or go micro solar for under $50.00. http://www.instructables.com/id/Uses-For-Dead-Car-Batteries-And-Sealed-Lead-Acid-B/?allstep
Kristie Hurst Sousa October 28, 2012 at 05:03 PM
Im in California & my 22 yr old son is over in piscataway, NJ working. Im very worried. Can u provide me info that might assure me of his safety in piscataway?
Christopher October 28, 2012 at 06:21 PM
I recommend getting supplies at Lowe's over reading Psalms 91.
john October 28, 2012 at 07:04 PM
Governor Christie was on TV on several channels at 2PM, will be back later with another press conference so stand by because it's about the most specific info that you will get -- maybe it would be about 6PM (maybe) as he said they are getting national weather reports about every 4 hours. He said for preparedness to go to http://www.ready.gov/ if you need a list. Obama has called him and they are ready and so on. He said school closings will be up to local area. Emphasis is on safety, anything else is secondary.
. October 28, 2012 at 09:21 PM
Power was already out off of Fischer by Cattus Island. A transformer blew up. Luckily it only took JCP & L two hours to get power back up.
Monk October 28, 2012 at 10:07 PM
So there.
Cardinal October 28, 2012 at 10:10 PM
Ahhh Wal-Mart SoKindTo It's Employees! The small business killer that imports China Products.
Deep snapper October 29, 2012 at 06:09 AM
Actually. I did see those generators n A worker did say they would be open 24 hours.
Tim Dixon October 29, 2012 at 02:15 PM
Take it from someone with experience down here in Hurricane Alley, have your gas grills operational or supplies for your charcoal grill. If power goes out for an extended period you'll want to cook everything in your freezer. We were out of power for 2 weeks after Hurricane Ivan in 2006 and organized community cookouts to cook and share all the food before it spoiled. Best of luck to all in my hometown!
Kaitlyn Anness October 29, 2012 at 03:25 PM
Please keep in mind that we are about to deal with what could be a deadly hurricane. While we love the conversation on Patch, let's keep it constructive and informative.
Deep snapper October 29, 2012 at 04:11 PM
Hey situation. This is a natural 8.2 storm!
Fred M October 29, 2012 at 04:21 PM
I recommend God over Lowes..lol
Black mamba October 29, 2012 at 04:24 PM
Anyone down for the jet ski race?? No one wants to man up? Loser buys winner the braccioli a la pomodoro at Spano's after the storm
Pamela Brown ♥ October 29, 2012 at 04:32 PM
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 37.5N 71.5W winds 90 MPH 12H 39.0N 74.0W winds 90 MPH 24H 39.9N 76.7W winds 70 MPH 36H 40.4N 77.9W winds 50 MPH 48H 41.5N 77.2W winds 40 MPH 72H 44.5N 75.6W winds 35 MPH Lacey Township: Oyster Creek New Jersey. Coordinates: 39°48′53″N 74°12′18″W / 39.81472°N 74.205°W http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282056.shtml?
Teri Roberts October 29, 2012 at 07:40 PM
Anyone know about the homes on Amherst Dr.? Are they flooded?
Sean McCullen October 29, 2012 at 08:57 PM
In what town, Teri? Remember: A lot of these Hurricane Sandy stories are posted across most NJ sites, and the comments are shared on all of those sites.
Teri Roberts October 29, 2012 at 09:24 PM
That's in Bayville, NJ
marylou October 29, 2012 at 10:02 PM
Dev,Do you really think that Walmart give a crap about their employees and their families?And those minimum wage employees are probably afraid that if they don't com in,they'll be fired.Those stores will stay open if they think customers will show up.
Joan Hedden October 30, 2012 at 02:53 AM
Wind is out of control in Lawrenceville. 70ft pine tree on top of my house and through garage wall and office window, other massive damage of huge trees down in back yard, deck railings smashed, bike shed demolished with bikes, car windshield smashed. Not much sleeping going on here. can't wait for the sun to come up and this stupid wind to stop! Enough!!
queenie Lanie October 31, 2012 at 11:18 AM
TO GLENN HAYES...IF YOU READ THIS, PLEASE LET US KNOW YOU ARE SAFE. My Mom is worried sick about your safety, and we are unsure of what happened, Please call her cell phone. Your friends in Kentucky....
john October 31, 2012 at 12:06 PM
Why are we getting an ad here? As with Sandy, GO AWAY!
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