Handicapping the 2012 Presidential Race

With the Iowa Caucuses just over six months away, now would be a good time to take an early look at next year's races for the presidential nominations. Since President Obama is certain to be the Democratic nominee, I’ll focus on the  declared and other likely Republican candidates and, just for fun, provide the morning wagering line for each. Note that some have already announced their intentions to seek the presidency while others have formed an exploratory committee. 

Although there are already several declared or likely candidates for the Republican presidential nomination, in a recent poll of registered Republicans, 50 percent of those asked stated that they wished there were additional candidates. There is a feeling among many that none of the current choices would be strong enough to defeat President Obama in November of 2012. Those feelings were reflected last week when some of Iowa's top Republican campaign contributors, unhappy with their choices in the developing presidential field, ventured to New Jersey in hopes they could persuade first-term Gov. Chris Christie to run.  Voters may also face the interesting dilemma in coming to realize that their first choice for their party’s nomination may very well not be the party’s best chance of defeating the president in next year's election. 

Two significant events this past weekend affecting the race were former House Speaker Newt Gingrich declaring his candidacy and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee announcing that he would not be a candidate for the nomination. Gingrich is well known in Republican circles but also carries heavy political and personal baggage from his years in Congress and three marriages. Huckabee was leading in early polls in Iowa and South Carolina.  His departure will leave many of his core supporters, including Christian Conservatives and Evangelicals, looking for another candidate. Look for all remaining candidates to try to appeal to these groups in coming days. 

With apologies to supporters of the candidacy of Jimmy “The Rent Is Too Damm High Party”  McMillan and others, if someone does not score at least 5 percent in a national poll, time and space prevent them from being mentioned here. 

Mitt Romeny:  I believe that Romney would be the strongest Republican candidate against President Obama.  He was elected as a Republican Governor of Massachusetts and would have appeal to moderate voters.   Whether he can secure the Republican nomination is another story. Much of the health care reforms enacted last year were based on Romney-Care which was enacted in Massachusetts under Romney. In a speech a couple of days ago, he seemed to take the position that there is nothing wrong with an individual state implementing those types of reforms but the federal government should not be taking the lead.  He has also flip-flopped on other previous held positions in an attempt to appeal to more conservative voters.  Some thought is that he would skip the Iowa Caucus and wait to enter the New Hampshire Primary where he is likely to win. Odds of winning the nomination:   3 to 1

Tim Pawlenty: Has not officially declared but the former Governor of Minnesota is likely to do so in coming weeks. Although not as well known as some of the other candidates, he does not have the baggage or negatives that some of those carry. Pawlenty could pick up some additional support especially if some of the alternative candidates being urged to run (Governor Christie and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels) eventually decline. Odds of winning the nomination: 8-1

Michele Bachmann:  Has not formally announced but likely to enter the race.  She has been a strong supporter of the Tea Party movement. Bachmann was unsuccessful in challenging for a House leadership position in the new congress. Although she has made public statements on occasion that were factually incorrect, she is in demand as a speaker and fundraiser. With Sarah Palin’s moment in the sun apparently over, Bachmann stands to be the beneficiary of some of Palin’s previous supporters.  Odds of winning the nomination: 12-1 

Newt Gingrich: Personal and political baggage aside, he is a smart guy. Will be interesting to see what kind of positions he stakes out since in the past he was very supportive of what turned out to be key elements of the Presidents health care reforms. He was also critical on a talk show Sunday, of Republican plans to reform Medicare. Odds of winning the nomination: 15-1

Herman Cain: The businessman and radio talk show host surprised many with a strong performance in the South Carolina debate where he basically presented himself as an outsider. Odds of wining the nomination: 20-1. 

Donald Trump: The only thing that matched Trump’s meteoric rise in the polls among Republican voters while he was spewing his birther nonsense was his drop in those same polls when his accusations blew up in his face. My thought is that he will decline to run but if he does, his candidacy would be in the very long shot category. Odds of winning the nomination: 30-1 

Ron Paul: Although Congressman Paul does have support among elements of the Republican Party at the grass roots level, especially from those who identify themselves as Tea Party supporters/members, my view is that it is very unlikely that he could capture the party’s nomination. Odds of that happening are 30 to 1.

 Other possibilities: Other non-declared possible candidates include Christie, Daniels, Giuliani and Palin, to name a few.  We will call that group “The Field” and set the odds of any of those or another late entry winning the nomination at 6-1. Also there are a couple of other names entered that are not breaking 5 percent in the polls including Huntsman, Johnson and Santorum. 

Those are my thoughts for now; please feel welcome to post yours in the comments section.